In betting, bookmakers, traders and odds compilers calculate the real probabilities of something happening based on statistics, form, history and ultimately human opinion (their own opinions, other bookies opinions and public opinion).
Probability however is only one aspect of odds pricing. Bookies don’t actually always set their odds based completely on the real probabilities of an outcome but sometimes on how likely they think their punters will wager on each outcome, allowing them to balance their book. (I will discuss this more later) The bookie starts off by making a rough prediction of the probability and then adds in their margin on top as I discussed about bookies margins previously.
Odds traders are only human and no matter how much experience they have and how many resources they have access to they are still liable to make mistakes. Even prices set by a computer programme require people to input the parameters and this means there is no definitive perfect way of setting prices. Prices tend to be set over-optimistically, i.e. the bookie assumes the outcome is more likely to happen than probability alone suggests.
Punters who can use unique knowledge of markets can spot regular overpricing and make consistent profits. To do this you need to think beyond the standard form, history and stats (the bookie has far more resources than you) and instead think about more subjective factors that could impact an outcome. Studying form and results isn’t going to beat the bookie alone, they are far better at this than you. Instead try to use information the bookmaker doesn’t look at, bookies are very good at objective decision making but not subjective.
For example, there is a growing appetite for all in one house stats based packages. I particularly like to use @tiptoptoptips for his stats packages as I love the way his cards are presented and give you a fantastic overview and level of depth of games your looking into at your finger tips, which could save you hours of individual research. However this alone is not the answer to beating the bookie consistently as previously mentioned they are far more likely to have access to far more and better data than we ever could. But its a fantastic start point and its time efficiency for you as a bettor is impossible to understate.
This is where finding an edge is absolutely crucial with sports betting and this can be done by finding out what you are good at and playing to your strengths and not to over stretch yourself covering to many different aspects. Go to others for information who have a speciality in that particular field that may be a weakness of yours.
For example, go to others who may have a better insight or information on a market or a game you may not do. One particular account that comes to mind for me is @PDLBets as he is fast developing a fantastic network and Breadth of knowledge for any u23 or Reserve game in English football which can be a gold mine. So if I was looking into betting possibilities on a game like that he would definitely be a man I would contact him as he may well have information the bookies yet may not have access to and you would find an edge that way and be able to get a bit of value on the bookies as they wouldn’t of factored this information into their prices yet.
That is just one example of a way of spotting value and tipping the scales in your favour.
The Percentage Game 