I’ve chosen a nice easy small blog to write today after how heavy the first few have been. I mentioned briefly about two way and three way markets the other day.
A two way market in sports betting is simply a market in which there can only be 2 outcomes. Win or Lose. Examples of this are markets such as Both Teams to Score or Over/Under 1.5 Goals etc. These are 2 way markets as it’s impossible to draw on them so either Both teams score in a game or they don’t or there are more than 2 goals in a match or there isn’t.
A three way market is traditionally a market such as Win/Draw/Win in football and is one of the common choices for the weekly football accumulator fan. There are 3 possible outcomes on these bets X team wins, Y team wins or the game ends a draw. Hence 3 way market.
Now the advantage to a 3 way market is you will get a better price on your desired outcome than you would if it was 2 way due to their being another possible outcome to the bet, this however is where the positives end for me.
I have always favoured 2 way markets which are common practise in American Sports such as Basketball, Baseball or Hockey due to the simple maths behind the fact you have a 50/50 shot rather than a 33.33% shot (I know the probability is far more complicated than this I’m just using an example). The American markets call this Money Line and this is because in American sports they hate a draw and will frequently continue play untill a winner is determined usually by a series of overtime (extra time) but sometimes penalties if needed. So you will have a outcome with your bet one way or another.
However where it starts to get more complicated is when betting on spreads or game totals and certain handicaps which is common place again in America as for example in a basketball match in the NBA you can take all kinds of different + or – Handicaps on either team to increase the odds by playing a little riskier if you think the team will win by a certain amount at least, or play a little safer if you add a little insurance in the way of a + handicap on a team which will of course bring the odds down in some respects. Now most books offer both whole number handicaps such as + or -7 for example and .5 handicaps such as + or -7.5.
So say you have taken -2.5 on the LA Lakers and they win the match vs Golden State Warriors by 3 points. Fantastic you have won the bet. But say they were to win by exactly 2 points your bet would be down as you needed them to win by more than 2.5 points which as you know is 3 or more as it’s impossible to have .5 a point so that works In the same way a European Handicap would.
However if you were to have taken -2 on the Lakers thinking they would win by more than a basket and they only won by 2 points your bet would be void meaning you haven’t lost. This adds a little insurance or safety to your bet at slightly reduced odds of course but I always look to take whole number handicaps for this reason as I can’t stand losing a bet by .5 of a point.
Totals work the same way in the fact if you took over 233.5 total points in the match and it finished on 233 you lose where as if you took 233 and it finished on that it’s a void. So in effect taking whole number bets is turning a 3 way market into a 2 way which is always in your favour.
Now that is an example with American sports but how does it apply to European sports such as Football which is obviously one of the most popular sports to bet on in this country, this brings me to explaining Asian Markets to you.
So as I previously mentioned about a European handicap which is often -1.5 on a football team to win a game and is a 3 way market in the fact if the team you have -1.5 on win the match by 1 goal you lose.
As nobody does I’m sure, I don’t enjoy losing so I look to take a safety net and one of my favourite personal bets to play on the football is the -1 Asian Handicap on a team I think will win comfortably. This is because by taking the Asian Handicap I’m covering myself for if the team wins the game by only a goal as my stake would be returned and the bet void if this occurs, rather than the loss the European equivalent would equal. As I think the team is going to win the game so why not increase the odds on such by taking the -1 because I would rather have a void if they only win by 1 than taking worse odds on just the straight win in 90 mins price.
This brings me back around to 2 and 3 markets again as if for example there’s 2 even matched sides playing (let’s say Liverpool and Man City for arguments sake) and both are priced 2.5 (6/4) to win and the draw is let’s say 4.33 (10/3) that obviously is a 3 way market. But say I have done the research and I feel Liverpool will beat Man City today but I obviously want to try and swing the bet more in favour I could turn it into a 2 way bet by taking the Asian Handicap 0.0 on Liverpool which effectively takes the draw out of the equation as if the game played out as a draw I haven’t lost anything as my bets void and refunded and of course if Liverpool won the game I win my bet. Draw No Bet is the exact same and is more widely offered by bookies than Asian handicaps are but due to the lack of wide scale knowledge you will often manage to find a slightly better price on the Asian line for the exact same bet.
This also applies on Over/Under bets as previously mentioned numbers ending in .5 can end in 3 ways but with bookies offering it you can take goal lines with whole numbers so for example if your certain there will be 3 goals in the Liverpool vs Man City game but you’re quite confident their will be more you can take 3.0 Goal Line which simply would mean if the match ends on 3 goals you get your money back it theres 4 or more you win and this would of course offer a better price than if you just took over 2.5 goals.
It can get more complicated with goal lines as you can take split lines such as 2.0/2.5 which if the match finished on 2 gaols half your stake would be refunded and half lost but I would only look to take split lines in situations where 1 goals would be a winner and a half void and 2 goals or more would be a full winner as it can get messy. I would generally favour taking full whole numbers as you get your full stake insurance then.
I honestly can’t recommend taking Asian Handicaps and Whole Number Goal lines enough, their does seem to be a growing knowledge of them in Sports Betting over here. But not enough people are aware of them. Here is a quote that I find particularly relevant.
“The people who succeed in life (on the whole) are those who make rational and objective judgements and mitigate risks (whether consciously or not), the same is true of successful gamblers.”
To me any way where you can minimise the risk to you in a bet is always worth taking ahead of a bet in which the probabilities aren’t in your favour from the start.
The Percentage Game 