Not a really popular topic for me to discuss seemingly from the poll’s ran on Twitter, but a key tool in my betting arsenal all the same. I think it is good to have a healthy balance between your long term ante post bets and short term game by game bets, with neither ever having more than 50% of your betting bank invested into it. For example, if at the start of the season you have a 100 Point Betting Balance, you wouldn’t want to commit more than 50 points of that to bets locked in for the season. So it is important to find that balance as if you lock too much money into bets across the season and it doesn’t go as planned, that is dead money as most bookmakers don’t allow easy cashing out on ante post bets. So you are forced to mitigate risks which could swallow yet more of your balance.
As I repeatedly say, with 99% of your sports bets, singles are the way to be profitable. By all means have a tiny bet on your life changing multi if you are playing with profit, but this can’t be relied on as a profitable longterm bet.
Next up another obvious one. Do your research meticulously and think of external factors as to why that team may struggle or succeed in the coming season. An obvious example to me this season was in the case of Macclesfield. They barely survived last season, so when it became more and more apparent they were struggling financially I placed a bet on them to be in the bottom two at 5.0 (4/1) and it has proved to be a season of turmoil for them with point deductions and such. The bet may go on to not win but I have had my moneys worth with it as the logic was clearly correct. I also used a free bet to place this so its a no loss bet to me anyway.
Another one to mention is try to avoid having too many bets on cup competion ante post as they can be a lot more sporadic in nature of its finalists due to the game being knockout football and if the team you have bet on has a bad 90 minutes that could be them out. Whereas bets over a league are much more spread out, you still would have a strong chance if a team is successful over the long term. I try to use free bets to place on Cup Winners ante post so its a no loss scenario for me as the bets are still fun to have but more risky in my opinion.
Look to a wide variety of markets that are available now ante post, particularly in football. An example I can give is Sky Bet were offering 2.1 (11/10) on Wycombe to finish higher than Gillingham this season which in hindsight looks absolutely mental value. Of course nobody could predict Wycombe would have had as good of a season as they have but they certainly were a nice price to do better than Gillingham.
Read as many peoples opinions and predictions as you can, don’t blindly follow them and do your own research but its always good to get as many peoples thoughts on an informed decision as possible. They may suggest something you havent considered and you go research it and find some great value. I personally found Preston to be the highest value this season for me at a price as high as 2.1 (11/10) just to finish in the top half of the table. With the squad and manager they have in place, that was almost a given for me and allowed me to get a nice large stake on to cover other bets.
Finally, try to get your bets on as soon as possible pre season when the markets come out. As the prices only will drop, very rarely do they come out unless something severe happens like a management departure coupled with several key players leaving as just one of those factors alone I have noticed rarely effect the price pre-season. Of course make sure you do all your research first before placing the bet, you can also wait to see how a clubs transfer business gets on before committing to a bet but of course their price is likely to shorten accordingly so thats the gamble you take, if you excuse the pun.
I like to use a tiered system of staking with my ante post bets, as opposed to taking a team to win the league E/W for example.
Brentford:
Winner: 21.0 Bet Victor – 0.25 Point
To Be Promoted: 7.0 Bet Victor – 0.5 Point
To Finish Top 6: 3.5 Bet Victor – 1 Point
Total Staked: 1.75 Point
That is the spread of bets I took on Brentford in the Championship this season. It is tiered so that the lowest stake is on the highest price which also offers the largest risk, but all my stakes are covered should they finish in the top 6. So hypothetically if you play at £1 per point; if they won the league you would win £12.25 which is an 11.25 point profit as you would get back £5.25 off Brentford winning the league, £3.50 back from them being promoted and £3.50 back from them being in the top 6. If they only managed promotion without winning the league so if they finished 2nd or won the play offs your making a £5.25 (5.25 Point) profit and if they merely finished in the play offs unsuccessfully you have still doubled your money making £3.50 (3.5 Points) off bets which cost you £1.75 (1.75 Points). I feel this way offers more safety and value than taking a bet on a team E/W which likely covers if they finish Top 3 or 4 and not Top 6.
Hope this all makes sense and covers how I like to approach ante post betting.
The Percentage Game 